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August 27, 2008

UPDATE: 4 p.m. Wednesday, Gustav weakening

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Haiti from the Dominican Republic-Haiti border westward to Le Mole St Nicholas.

A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning are in effect for Jamaica.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Cuba for the provinces of

Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba and Granma.

At 5 p.m. the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was located near latitude 19.1 north and longitude 74.4 west or 90 miles southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba.

Gustav is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph. A west to west-northwest track is forecast during the next day or two with a gradual increase in forward speed. On the forecast track Gustav should pass between Jamaica and the southeastern coast of Cuba on Thursday. However any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center ofGustav very near Jamaica.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast once Gustav moves away from Haiti and the storm could regain hurricane strength within the next day or two.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center.

An air force reconnaissance aircraft reported a minimum central pressure of 999 mb...29.50 inches.

Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches possible. These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected in areas of onshore winds in the tropical storm warning area.

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