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August 22, 2012

Coleman Fantasy Football: 49ers, Texans top defensive choices

PORT ARTHUR — We have come to the end of the line on these positional breakdowns. All that’s left are defenses and kickers.

    The thing is, you really shouldn’t worry about making tiers for these two position groups. Sure, they’re important, because they’re both starting positions on your team. Let’s run through a couple of facts, first.

    The New York Jets defense, ranked pretty consistently as the top rated fantasy defense going into last season, finished fifth in points in 2011. To get the Jets in most drafts last fall, you would have had to take them in the middle rounds, maybe as early as the seventh or eighth.

    The highest scoring defense last season was the San Francisco 49ers, who were not nearly so well-regarded. The fourth highest were the Detroit Lions and the eighth highest were the Houston Texans.

    All three of those teams could have been taken in the last two rounds of a draft, freeing you up to grab an extra wide receiver like Victor Cruz and stash him on the bench. Every year, this happens, as Indianapolis was there a few years ago, along with New England and a bunch of other defenses.

    If you want to grab a defense early, that’s fine. Pay attention to your league scoring system before you make that decision, though. Do the defenses get points for special teams as well? How many points for each sack, interception and points allowed? Get familiar with how many points you expect that team to score before you pick them.

    With kickers, it’s an even bigger gamble. As I said last year, the only real sure-thing is trying to grab a kicker in a dome, because they won’t have weather to worry about. Of course, the highest scoring kicker last season was David Akers, who was in a notorious windy park out there in San Francisco. That’s the same David Akers who was cut by Philadelphia in favor of a rookie, which tells you all you need to know about how predictable kickers can be.

    That’s why we’re not going to tier these positions and instead, just rank the top five in each category. If you feel strongly about grabbing one before the final few rounds of the draft, rank your own top five and then draft accordingly.



Defenses

    1) San Francisco 49ers – They’re big. They’re fast. They hit hard. Did you see those blitzes against the Texans last Saturday? That was just the vanilla stuff, too. Don’t take them too early, but there is no doubt San Fran is the top defense heading into the season.

    2) Houston Texans - Here’s where things get interesting. I’ll admit, this is a complete homer pick. But, if you’re league values special teams yardage as part of the defense’s scoring, Houston might well fit here by the end of the season. That’s because of the explosive Trindon Holliday. If he makes the team, he adds another scary dimension to this group.

    3) Baltimore Ravens – The most dependable selection on the board. For as long as I’ve been playing fantasy football, the Baltimore Ravens have been a top 5 defense. That’s pretty impressive. They may not be the top team every year, but take Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata and Friends and you will not be disappointed.

    4) Seattle Seahawks – Another team that’s on the rise. Seattle actually finished higher than Houston in total points last season. With the addition of an explosive Bruce Irvin at linebacker, the Seahawks seem poised to take that next step. A great value late in the draft.

    5) New York Jets – Really, if you play fantasy football, you should be reading Bill Barnwell over at Grantland.com. He’s a fantastic football writer, who brings new statistics to the party in ways that open up anyone’s understanding of the game.

    On the Jets, he looked at why they underperformed on defense last season and concluded that it was a bit of a fluke. He suggested they should easily bounce back into the top 5 in terms of yards allowed and points allowed, which in turn bounces them back into the top tier of fantasy defenses. At the same time, there shouldn’t be the same heat on them at the top of the draft, so you could really get a bargain later on.

Kickers

    1) Sebastian Janikowski, Oakland – Why is he ranked here, if he wasn’t the highest scoring kicker last season? And why is he here if he doesn’t play in a dome?

    Simple. Janikowski had more made field goals from 40 or more yards last season than anyone else. That included seven from 50 or more and 10 from 40-49. Most scoring systems give you five points for 50+ field goals and four for 40+. That means Janikowski was better at making those long range kicks than anyone else, thus giving you a bigger chance at scoring in bunches from this spot.

    2) John Kasay, New Orleans – He’s in a dome and he kicks for the highest-powered offense in the league. Even if Brees and Co. take a step back this season without Sean Payton, don’t think they’ll just stop scoring points. Kasay may not have the leg, but he’s dependable and is an easy five points each week in your lineup.

    3) David Akers, San Francisco – Here’s the guy who burst onto the scene last year. It reminds me of when Neil Rackers did that for the Arizona Cardinals a few years back and then fell back to the pack. Really, you could plug any dependable veteran into this spot.

    4) Whoever wins the job in Houston – Yep, we don’t even know who will be the kicker at the beginning of the regular season, and I’m still putting them in the top five. Call it the Explosive Offense Corollary. Any time an offense is capable of putting up big points, take the kicker. You won’t be disappointed.

    Word is that Gary Kubiak wants to think long-term and probably goes with Randy Bullock, but for a team that has Super Bowl aspirations, it makes sense to take the veteran Shayne Graham. Either way, these guys should score points.

    5) Alex Henery, Philadelphia – This is another hunch, but anyone who saw Henery play at Nebraksa knows just how powerful a kicker he can be. Do you remember that game-winning kick he made against Colorado, from like 54 yards? And when his coach asked him if he could make it, he replied, “I was making them in warmups.”

    Only he actually said, “I HAVEN’T been making them in warmups,” but the coach misheard and sent him out anyway? Good thing he nailed the kick.

    Well, that story alone is enough to get me to draft this guy. Philly should score some points and, in his second year, Henery should be a little more dependable.

    David Coleman is a sports writer for the Port Arthur News. He can be e-mailed at dcoleman@panews.com

 

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