PORT ARTHUR —
For a third straight week, we’ll walk down the path of tiered draft rankings.
A quick review for people new to this column: what I’m trying to do is emulate what NFL teams may do for their drafts, creating tiers of players instead of numbered lists. This way, you get a better sense of when a particular position is getting scarce and prioritize your draft accordingly.
This week, we’re visiting the receivers and tight ends. They’re ranked together, but I don’t have many tight ends here. I’ll put a section at the end that covers some of the TEs after that and a sleeper or two.
Tier 1
Calvin Johnson, DET; Larry Fitzgerald, ARI; Roddy White, ATL; Jimmy Graham (TE), NO
Megatron himself has taken over this list. No one else is close to Calvin Johnson after his monster 2011 season. He’s one of the few receivers who’s actually getting consideration to be taken No. 1 overall (even if that’d be a slightly silly thing to do).
In fact, Larry Fitzgerald, who’s also in this list, gave an interview this offseason where he said he’d take Calvin over himself in a fantasy draft. That’s when you know you’re good.
Fitzgerald should be very productive as well and could easily anchor a team’s receiver spot. I have a hunch Roddy White will have a big year and deserve a spot on here, but Julio Jones could eat into his numbers.
As for Jimmy Graham, there are some experts who argue Graham should be drafted in the first round, especially in PPR (Point per reception) leagues. He’s already the top target in New Orleans for a team that figures to see some bumps this season and may be having to play catchup on offense. That makes him super valuable and gives him an outside shot at 15 touchdowns.
Tier 2
Andre Johnson, HOU; A.J. Green, CIN; Wes Welker, NE
Big, big concerns about all these guys, but talent wins out in the end. Think about it this way…I’d be much happier with these guys as a No. 2 reciever on a team rather than relying on them as the No. 1. But, it’s unlikely you’ll be able to draft that way, so get very comfortable with all of their situations before drafting them.
For Johnson, it’s his injuries. Tweaking that groin certainly didn’t help things for the big man, who is aging and but may just be going through some bad luck. It’s wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen a guy disintegrate very quickly, but it also could just be a blip on his radar. When he’s in the lineup, Johnson should be productive.
A.J. Green could make a leap in his sophomore season, and he could regress along with the rest of his offense. He showed he’s talented enough to perform well, but the sophomore slump does not differentiate between the talented and non-talented.
As for Welker, he’s much more valuable in a PPR. I think his value is diminished some here by the presence of Brandon Lloyd (which we’ll get to in a minute), but he deserves consideration pretty highly.
Tier 3
Greg Jennings, GB; Hakeem Nicks, NYG; Brandon Lloyd, NE; Julio Jones, ATL; Brandon Marshall, CHI; Eric Decker, DEN
Worry about Jennings, as he suffered a concussion during a scrimmage and has missed time with health-related issues before. Draft him, just don’t count on him to carry your team.
Nicks could very well have a bounce-back season himself, pairing with the explosive Victor Cruz. But, with Cruz’ emergence, the Giants may not have enough balls to go around for Nicks to be crazy productive. Same thing goes for Jones, who may take a huge leap, but who could also run into a numbers crunch in Atlanta. Marshall scares me, but his team-up with Jay Cutler proved fruitful the first time around.
The two guys I love here are Lloyd and Decker. I fully expect both to end the season in the Top 10 for fantasy wideouts. Lloyd provides an element to that Patriot offense that’s been lacking for a few years, getting vertical and giving Tom Brady another option on the outside. He’ll get the opportunity to excel.
As for Decker, he’s the best route-runner in Broncos camp. You may have noticed when he was in Indianapolis that Peyton Manning likes precise route runners and gets furious with guys who mess up routes. That’s why I’m betting Decker becomes his favorite target and has a throwback Brandon Stokley/Austin Collie type season. Don’t sleep on him.
Tier 4
Victor Cruz, NYG; Rob Gronkowski, NE; Antonio Gates, SD; Steve Smith, CAR; Marques Colston, NO; Miles Austin, DAL; Dwayne Bowe, KC
Cruz will face some pressure, but also should see less double coverage with Nicks back and healthy. Gronk should be higher, but that offense has too many weapons to expect him to put up another 17 TD season. Smith, Colston and Austin should be very reliable No. 2 guys, while Bowe could be playing for a new contract.
That leaves Gates as the one surprise on this list. If he’s really healthy this season (and he is, by all accounts), he could be in for a throwback season. He’s easily Philip Rivers’ best target this season and one of the few guys with a solid base of familiarity in the offense. He’s also one of the best redzone threats on the team with Mike Tolbert gone. I’m betting he could be Comeback Player of the Year. At least, he could be in the fantasy world.
Tier 5
Steve Johnson, BUF; DeSean Jackson, PHI; Torrey Smith, BAL; Demariyus Thomas, DEN; Jordy Nelson, GB; Vincent Jackson, TB; Denarius Moore, OAK; Kenny Britt, TEN
Lots of potential here, but not a lot of solid options for teams looking to fill that second receiver slot. Thomas, Nelson and Jackson could be great, but they’ll more likely be just good. Stevie Johnson is already dealing with an injury similar to the one that hampered him last season (never a good sign) and DeSean Jackson loses value by not being a punt returner.
Smith and Thomas are young enough to be interesting upside guys, and I really like Moore to take a big step forward, but they are all gambles.
The biggest gamble on the list may be Britt, who could easily jump up three tiers here if he plays to his potential. However, a looming suspension will cost him time and draft stock. The uncertainty with the Titans quarterback situation won’t help early in the season, either. He strikes me as an excellent buy-low candidate around Week 6, so draft accordingly.
Stay away: Mike Wallace, PIT; Dez Bryant, DAL; Antonio Brown, PIT; Santonio Holmes, NYJ
Sports
August 15, 2012
Coleman Fantasy Football: Megatron top dog among receivers
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