PORT ARTHUR — If you listen to enough fantasy sports chatter, either on the XM/Sirius station dedicated to nothing but fantasy talk or any number of podcasts around the internets, you’ll no doubt run across this or that expert talking about players with risk involved.

Usually, the expert says something like, “Well, Player X has this going on and I’m just not sure what he’ll have left this season. I’d be cautious on moving for him.” Risk = caution in fantasy circles.

But, every season, there are players who are seen as risky at the beginning of the season that are rock solid at the end. Not many experts, though, offer up their picks on which risky players should be downplayed and gotten for a discounted rate.

That’s why I thought I’d buck the trend and offer up a bunch of players who are risky, but who I think will be solid plays this season. Call it my “I Believe In You” list.

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs — The former Memorial back got married last weekend, which doesn’t make any difference in the fantasy world, but does deserve a hearty congratulations from the staff here at The News.

Charles is coming off a knee injury, the Chiefs signed Peyton Hillis in the offseason and drafted Cyrus Gray out of Texas A&M. Adding two backs isn’t exactly a confidence booster for potential Charles owners. Except, in talking to Charles during his football camp here in Port Arthur, he sounds very, very driven to succeed this season. I would not bet against him, which is why I Believe In Him.

Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos — Since he was drafted, I've been in on Manning. I have seen him eviscerate too many teams with his accuracy and a sense for how to run his offense.

That doesn’t just go away. If he has recovered from the neck injury, Manning will be able to throw. Add in the weapons he has in Denver and a full offseason of work with the new guys and Manning should run at least as good an offense as he had in Indy two years ago.  If he's healthy, Manning can be a Top 5 QB again, which is why I Believe In Him.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings — Yes, there is a pesky knee injury here too. Yes, something happened at a Houston nightclub. Yes, he made the interesting decision to hire Rusty Hardin. But, I don’t think anything will slow this guy down.

If/when he’s healthy, he’ll produce at a high level for this Minnesota offense, just like he’s done for years now. We’ll talk about this later in a look at the running back position this year, but the simple fact is there are very few elite-level running backs this year. Teams will be lucky to have one guy who can perform at a high level. If you can get Peterson and he proves to be able to go All Day? That’s a huge bonus.

Which is why I Believe In Him.

Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans — I’ll admit, the knee scope Johnson went through this spring is worrying. And yes, Johnson’s numbers have dropped for the last three seasons from his heights as the best fantasy receiver in the league from 08-09.

Yet, he’s still one of the best of the best if healthy. Johnson’s 2010 numbers of 1,200 yards and eight TDs were on pace for another 1,500-yard season if he had played 16 games. It’s not like the Houston offense is moving away from Johnson as its main threat, either. His yards per catch didn’t drop, so the only signs we have of decline are assumed based on the injuries.

Bet against Johnson if you like, but I’m not going there. I think he plays at least 13 games this year and produces like a Top 5 receiver. Which is why I Believe in Him.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins — He’s a rookie. He’s a quarterback. He’s going to a team that was pretty wretched on offense last year.

But, since I’ve been touting him since the draft, I can’t step back on RGIII now. The question will be how good he is going to be. Right now, I’d love for RGIII be my backup quarterback on a fantasy team, because I think he’ll evolve as the season goes along into a starter.

However, there’s always a chance he comes in and puts up Cam Newton-esque numers from the very beginning. With his double threat nature, he could have sub-par passing numbers and make up for it with rushing prowess. Remember, the Shanahan offense features plenty of naked bootlegs and the like. With a player as explosive as RGIII, he could easily turn those into long gains once or twice a game.

There are plenty of low end starting fantasy QBs I’d draft RGIII over, including Matt Ryan of the Falcons, which is why I Believe In Him.

Denarius Moore, WR, Oakland Raiders — The only questions about Moore rest more on the Raiders offense and Carson Palmer. Will this group be productive enough for Moore to be a top-level wideout?

Count me among his believers. Since last training camp, reporters and pundits touted Moore as the most talented receiver on the team. It just took him a bit to gain his footing.  Take out a disastrous month of October and Moore averaged almost 20 yards per catch and had 600 yards in nine games.

That put him on pace for over 1,000 yards if he had played all 16 games. This year, he could do just that and break the 1,000 yard mark, which makes him a solid No. 2 receiver prospect and could make him a steal if you can get him in the seventh round or later. Which is why I Believe in Him.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks – Mr. Beast Mode lost two seasons to injury and holdout before emerging last year in Seattle to do pretty much what he did in his first two years in Buffalo. He’s a top back and he’s just 25.

So, why doesn’t he get the love that some other top backs do? As we talked about with Adrian Peterson, there just aren’t that many elite backs. Lynch not only should be a focus of the Seattle offense, but he should score around 10 TDs again.

That means his stats won’t drop too much from last season, when he was a Top 5 back. That’s why I Believe In Him.

DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles — Let’s take the contract stuff and set that aside. After all, Jackson got paid by the Eagles, so he shouldn’t be unhappy about that.

If he’s going to be listed like a third wideout in some mock drafts, he should be performing like one. He also should be performing worse than his teammate Jeremy Maclin, who actually had a worse statistical season than Jackson.

So, why is Jackson being downgraded? Injuries are probably a concern, sure, but the potential is wearing off a bit, too. Jackson is growing up and hasn’t shown he can be a No. 1 receiver yet. He’s still very good, and a bet to catch 60 passes for 1,000 yards and score five touchdowns. That’s the bottom of his potential.

If he improves from there? You have a steal. That’s why I Believe In Him.

David Coleman writes a weekly Fantasy Coleman for the Port Arthur News. He can be e-mailed at david.coleman@gmail.com. He can also be found on Twitter at @MDavidColeman.