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Sports

July 4, 2012

FSTA draft shows early fantasy football trends

PORT ARTHUR — Are you getting ready for the 2012 fantasy football season yet? Well, you should be, because the rest of your league probably is.

The fantasy football prep season officially kicked off with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association’s mock draft, held at their annual convention in San Francisco two weeks ago. Fantasy football experts from around the country gathered to take part in a 14-team snake draft with no keepers.

Why is this important, you say? Well, picking up trends from the experts in these early drafts can be invaluable to you in preparing for yours. Don’t necessarily get locked into the exact order of their picks (which can be found at http://fantasyalarm.com/2012-siriusxm-fsta-expert-fantasy-football-draft/). Instead, look for trends on players or positions that you can use to help you going forward.

What am I talking about? Well, for instance, the biggest trend in the first round was the run on running backs. Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy went 1-2-3 in this draft and 13 different running backs were selected in the top 25 picks. That’s because there’s a widely held belief that premium running backs will be in short supply this season, so getting one stud guy at that position is pretty important.

But, building on that trend is another. After those first picks, it’s wide receivers that get most of the attention. Four wideouts went in the first 14 picks in this draft and 17 went in the first 42 picks or first three rounds. One team even picked three straight wideouts at the end of the first round before grabbing a pair of running backs with his next three picks.

That’s a bit of a change from recent seasons, when teams tried to grab at least two big-time runners to bolster a team. Only two teams in this league did that, pairing Marshawn Lynch with Matt Forte on one and Chris Johnson with Adrian Peterson in another.

Notice I mentioned Peterson going in the second round, despite his knee injury. The crazy thing about the running back depth this season is an owner might feel the need to take a risk on Peterson early, even if he may only play half the season.

Port Arthur fans will be pleased to know that Jamaal Charles was picked in the third round, coming off his knee injury that wrecked his 2011 season. Charles was a first-round talent in that season and appears fully recovered. He’s one guy who may have gone too low and could be a great value around pick No. 35 or 40 in most drafts.

Two other things jumped out as seemingly unusual, but made sense if you think about it. First of all, both Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski went in the top 18 picks. That puts them in the range of the first or second round for most drafts, which is not typically when tight ends get drafted. But, if you look at the kind of points those two put up last season, they played a lot like No. 1 receivers for their teams. Picking them there isn’t about a position as much as getting a premium receiver on par with the Calvin Johnsons of the world.

The other surprise in this draft is that Cam Newton went before Aaron Rodgers. I guess you can justify this with Newton’s offense gaining more pieces through this past offseason and him maturing in his second season as a starter. I just don’t buy it. I know Rodgers’ interception numbers are likely to go up from the tiny number they were at last season, but you could say the same thing about Newton’s rushing touchdowns. I’d personally have Newton behind Rodgers and Tom Brady, but that’s just me.

There was also plenty of value picks on display of players whose stock may be lower than their performance this year will dictate. Peyton Manning is the biggest one on this list, as he was the eighth quarterback taken but is a good bet to end up in the Top 5 this season in total points. If you miss out on that elite tier of guys, there’s a terrific chance you can grab Manning in the fourth, fifth or sixth rounds and still have a great QB for your team.

Same goes with Brandon Lloyd (NE), Kenny Britt (TEN) and DeSean Jackson (PHI), who all fell behind other big name receivers but could definitely post numbers like No. 1 wideouts this season. An even deeper sleeper appears to be Denarius Moore (OAK), who very well could take The Leap in his second season with the Raiders.

The only real values at running back were guys like Charles in the third round, but a big under-the-radar back right now appears to be David Wilson (NYG). If the rookie can hold on to the spot that’s basically wide open for him, he has some tremendous upside to put up big numbers in a prolific offense. He was drafted in the eighth round here and will probably outplay 10 backs that were drafted ahead of him.

Rookies weren’t exactly well represented in this draft, but Cleveland’s Trent Richardson did go at the end of the first round. I like that situation with the Browns offensive line, but don’t love the rest of the offense. I’d rather have Wilson in the eighth than Richardson in the first. Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin went in the third round but doesn’t have a clear starting spot with LeGarrette Blount filling that role (for now).

Justin Blackmon was the first rookie receiver drafted, in the seventh round. In all, seven rookie wideouts were taken, but outside of Blackmon, none were tabbed outside the 11th round, after most starting rosters were already set. The new Indy connection of Andrew Luck and Coby Fleener were both picked, but RGIII got snubbed. I’m already on record that RGIII could have the better rookie season, because he’s going into a proven offense that plays into his strengths out of the pocket. Obviously, the experts did not share my optimism.

Oh, and in case you were wondering, Tim Tebow was drafted, in the final round, seven picks from the end of the draft. Even in fantasy, though, he can’t catch a break, as he’ll be sitting behind both Mark Sanchez and Aaron Rodgers on this fantasy team.

David Coleman is a sportswriter for the Port Arthur News. He can be emailed at dcoleman@panews.com and found on Twitter at @MDavidColeman.

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