PORT ARTHUR —
As one of my random thoughts last week, I talked about how Andrew Luck isn’t getting nearly enough fanfare for what he’s done this season. That’s because the second pick in the 2012 draft has been significantly better.
But, the rookie QB crop as a whole has been pretty solid, with three of the five rookie starters threatening to top 4,000 yards passing. So, let’s build on that random thought from last week and check in on all the rookie starters to see how they are doing and what their relative fantasy value is right now.
As a postscript to last week, yes, I did beat my wife’s team. No, I’m not going to say more because I’d like to stay married. And, yes, this whole column may have been spawned because I was seriously considering picking up Brandon Weeden as a bye week starter. Things are pretty grim on my team right now. Thanks, Phillip Rivers.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis
Projected stats: 4,380 passing yards, 19 TDs, 20 INTs, 377 rushing yards, 309 fantasy points
As I’ve said before in this space, Luck hasn’t gotten the fanfare that RGIII has, but he’s been the best rookie in terms of passing yardage and that reflects in his projections. He’s the only rookie to be projected for more than 4,000 yards passing, which is a feat only Cam Newton has pulled off.
Luck is hurt here by all his interceptions. He’s projected with 11 more picks than RGIII, though he’s on pace for more TDs. Plus, his rushing totals have been good but not great. Still, figure that the Colts will be trailing in quite a few games the rest of the way and Luck should be throwing the ball plenty.
Does that mean he’s worth starting in a league? Not really. His point totals are good, but not great. He’d make a solid bye week fill-in, but anyone trying to be cute and playing matchup games with him (like starting him over Tom Brady as he headed for Seattle last week) is doomed to be disappointed.
Robert Griffin III, Washington
Projected stats: 3,886 passing yards, 16 TDs, 9 INTs, 1,130 rushing yards, 14 TDs, 404 fantasy points
What can you say about RGIII? Only Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are projected for more fantasy points. What’s more, only 11 running backs have been projected for more rushing yards than him.
His passing success has also been limited because Pierre Garcon hasn’t been healthy. Once he gets back and Bob Griffin gets his full arsenal to attack defenses, things should pick up and he’s likely to go over 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing. No NFL quarterback has ever done that. Ever.
It’s safe to say Washington made a good call in picking him and that Mike Shanahan has done a great job in utilizing him in his offense. The only thing that may keep Griffin from hitting these marks is Shanahan’s precaution in letting RGIII run. That’s a lot of unnecessary hits he’d need to take to get to 1,000 yards rushing. Still, Griffin is one of the top 5 fantasy quarterbacks in the league as a rookie, which is really impressive.
Ryan Tannehill, Miami
Projected stats: 3,581 passing yards, 13 TDs, 14 INTs, 63 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 223 fantasy points
Are Tannehill’s stats the worst in this group because his team is the least talented or because he’s just not that good as a rookie? It’s hard to separate out those flotsam and jetsam, but it is worth noting that only RGIII is projected for fewer picks. Plus, he’s actually thrown for decent yardage.
The puzzling thing about Tannehill is his rushing total. Even Matt Schaub and Peyton Manning have scrambled for more yards than that. It’s also not like Tannehill is a stiff in the pocket. He used to be a receiver at A&M and is a pretty good athlete. Shouldn’t he be scrambling a little more?
Sadly, I think Tannehill is probably the worst fantasy option of the group right now. He just doesn’t have the weapons to consistently score points, either for fantasy teams or for his Dolphins.
Brandon Weeden, Cleveland
Projected stats: 3,874 passing yards, 17 TDs, 23 INTs, 119 rushing yards, 235 fantasy points
The old man of the group, Weeden just turned 29, but has put up some impressive passing stats and is threatening to become a 4,000 yard passer as a rookie. To put some perspective on that for someone who isn’t RGIII or Luck, only one rookie QB in history has passed for that many yards.
The interceptions are really what hurt you with Weeden. He has had some explosive games and seems to be developing a rapport with some of Cleveland’s young, quick receivers like Josh Gordon. But, he still makes one or two bad decisions a game that lead to interceptions. You might risk him as a bye week starter (like I’m considering), but he’s liable to go full-on Philip Rivers meltdown on you at any point.
Russell Wilson, Seattle
Projected stats: 3,051 passing yards, 18 TDs, 17 INTs, 248 rushing yards, 203 fantasy points
It should be a little surprising that maybe the most successful quarterback on the list from a win-loss record standpoint should be so low fantasy-wise, but it’s got to do with Wilson’s passing yardage. He just isn’t throwing the ball that much, as the Seahawks either try to hide him or to feature Marshawn Lynch more.
Wilson did just have his best game of the year against New England’s shoddy secondary, winning the game with a last-second TD pass to Sidney Rice. There may be some more optimism based on that, but don’t count on it. Wilson should only be considered as a bye week fill-in for deep leagues.
Sports
October 17, 2012
Coleman Fantasy Football: Rookie Qbs rolling up their share of points
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