PAnews.com, Port Arthur, Texas

Bob West

October 13, 2009

Texas-Oklahoma oddsmakers and feeble Big 12

Bob West column for Wednesday, Oct 14

Texas, as should be the case, is the oddsmakers choice to beat Oklahoma Saturday in Dallas. The Longhorns, after all, are 5-0 and rated No. 2 or No. 3, depending on your choice of polls.

What’s curious, however, is that the Longhorns are favored by only 3 1/2 points over a No. 18 Sooner team that’s lost to Brigham Young and Miami, and has a quarterback who is rusty and nowhere near 100 percent. So what gives? Why does this look like a trap game, trying to lure Texas money? Why aren’t the Longhorns more like a touchdown favorite?

The most obvious answer is that nobody really knows how good this Texas team is? That’s mostly because its schedule is an embarrassment for such an elite program. You don’t find out much about yourself playing the likes of Louisiana-Monroe, Wyoming and UTEP , schools rated No. 92, No. 105 and No. 116 in USA Today’s Sagarin computer ratings.

Throw in the fact that the two Big 12 foes the Longhorns have played to date — Texas Tech (49) and Colorado (87) — are mediocre and awful, respectively, and it’s difficult to get a legitimate feel for the Longhorns. It didn’t help the evaluation process that Mack Brown’s team spent two quarters wallowing around with Colorado before finally pulling away.

In the Sagarin poll, which is one of the components in the BCS ratings, Texas is rated No. 14. That’s right, No. 14. They are behind the likes of Boise State (No. 6), Cincinnati (No. 10) and TCU (No. 13). Yes, we all know Texas could beat any of those schools, but playing powderpuffs takes away points with computers.

And computers, regrettably, are formidable players in the modern world of college football.

The givens with Texas, meanwhile, are an excellent QB in Colt McCoy, a game-breaking receiver and kick returner in Jordan Shipley and a stout defense. If there’s an obvious weakness, it’s a suspect running game. That, of course, ties in to a pass-first mentality that goes back a few years and will eventually cause blue chip backs to start looking elsewhere.

As for the polls, it was interesting to note that there was hardly any fanfare this week, after Texas dropped from No. 2 to No. 3 in the Associated Press rankings. Alabama, which would get this vote for No. 1, deservedly jumped over the Longhorns to assume the position immediately behind season long No. 1 Florida.

Being No. 3 is no big deal to Texas in the big picture, because Alabama is presumably going to meet Florida in the SEC championship game, and the loser will fall out of the national championship picture. All Texas has to do to play in Pasadena is defeat Oklahoma Saturday, then cruise through the remainder of a Big 12 cast that his hardly imposing.

Oklahoma State, you say? Yeah, right. The Cowboys couldn’t beat Houston in Stillwater and their best player, receiver Dez Bryant, has been suspended by the NCAA for lying about hanging out with Deion Sanders. Plus they still can’t spell defense in Stillwater. T. Boone Pickens may not enough have enough millions to enable OSU to ever do anything more than play second fiddle to the Sooners.

Well, then, how about Missouri and Kansas? Texas has to play at both schools.

Missouri is a paper Tiger, which has built its 4-1 record against a schedule even more pitiful than Texas has played. My old school’s four victories have come against Illinois (No. 112), Nevada (No. 78), Bowling Green (No. 83) and Furman (No. 133). Mizzou is ridiculously overrated.

Kansas, which is 5-0, has run through an ever bigger joke of a schedule. The Jayhawks have defeated Northern Colorado (195), UTEP (116), Duke (64), Southern Miss (76) and Iowa State (No. 80). The Jayhawks schedule is rated No. 125. That Duke is their signature win says it all.

Perhaps you detect a pattern here. Big 12 schools are mostly frauds when it comes to writer’s and coach’s ratings, because they are in the cupcake business. Their records are inflated against teams that have no chance to beat them. The only victory of consequence in the Big 12 this year is Oklahoma State over 3-3 Georgia, which can be found at No. 40 in the Sagarin poll.

Oklahoma, as mentioned, has lost to BYU and Miami. Both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State fell to Houston. Nebraska got beat at Virginia Tech. Baylor, before losing its star QB, got whipped in Waco by Connecticut. A&M; was routed by Arkansas. Kansas State lost at Louisiana Lafayette. Colorado got shredded by Toledo.

Bottom line, the Big 12 has taken a big tumble from last season. Among the BCS Conferences, the Sagarin ratings have it listed above only the Big Ten.

As a result of the overall sad state of the conference, Texas will never have an easier path to the national championship game. Take out a less than imposing Oklahoma on Saturday and it’s pretty much a done deal.

Even if the Longhorns run the table, as they certainly should, we still won’t know how good they are. That won’t be determined until they square off against Florida or Alabama. Win that one and Orangebloods will have every right to brag.

Lose it and they can expect plenty of chirping that the only reason Texas made it that far was because it skillfully managed to avoid serious competition.

Sports editor Bob West can be e-mailed at rdwest@usa.net

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