Article first published: Wednesday, Sep. 25, 2024, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Wednesday, Sep. 25, 2024, 1 p.m. ET

The National Hurricane Center’s 1 pm Wednesday advisory reported that Helene transitioned from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico. The tropical storm Helene has developed into a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 80 miles per hour. Helene was previously forecasted as a tropical storm but has since gained strength. Category 1 Hurricane Helene is 110 miles north-northeast of Cozumel Mexico and 480 miles south-southwest of Tampa Florida, with maximum sustained wind of 80 mph. It’s moving 10 mph to the north-northwest.

“A turn toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today through Thursday, bringing the center of Helene across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and to the Florida Big Bend coast by Thursday evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to slow down and turn toward the northwest over the southeastern United States Friday and Saturday. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening.” forecasters wrote. “Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene’s fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.”

Helene brewed in the Caribbean Sea and moved to the Gulf of Mexico. The tropical storm Helene has upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 80 mph.

YESTERDAY (Tuesday):

Yesterday, the system strengthened enough to get a name: Tropical Storm Helene. It found new strength and evolved from a potential tropical cyclone into a tropical storm with sustained winds of 80 miles per hour.

A storm surge warning and a hurricane warning have been issued by forecasters for the gulf coast of Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:

– Indian Pass southward to Flamingo

– Tampa Bay

– Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:

– Anclote River to Mexico Beach

– Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:

– West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:

– Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

– Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

– Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas

– Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

– West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line

– Flamingo northward to South Santee River

– Lake Okeechobee

– Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico

– Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

– North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Additional watches or warnings may be required later today or tonight.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Carrabelle, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL…12-18 ft Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL…8-12 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL…8-12 ft Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL…6-9 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL…5-8 ft Tampa Bay…5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL…3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor…3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml? PeakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in southern Florida later today and will spread northward across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in South Carolina beginning on Thursday.

Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the hurricane warning area in Mexico during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in Cuba, and hurricane conditions are possible for the western portion of Cuba today.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. A 24-hour rainfall total of 8.60 inches (218.4 mm) was recently reported in Embalse Herradura, Pinar del Rio, Cuba, by the Meteorological Service of Cuba.

Over the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals around 15 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding. Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml? Rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml? Ero.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of the Florida Peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding northward across Florida into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast later today and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Source: National Hurricane Center